Solana’s Rollercoaster Ride: Will the Price Take a Joyride or Plunge into the Abyss?

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Ah, Solana! The price has taken us on a thrilling escapade, recovering sharply after a dizzying decline that resembled the downward spiral of a merry-go-round-except this one spins wildly inside a falling channel. As fate would have it, our dear SOL found a rather cozy support at around $67 in the early days of February, only to bounce back over 30% like a caffeinated kangaroo. Who knew dip buyers could be so optimistic, perhaps a tad too hopeful for their own good?

At first glance, this rebound seems as convincing as a magician pulling a rabbit from a hat. However, lest we forget, our gallant SOL is still shackled beneath the looming shadow of major resistance, and the on-chain data resembles an indecisive cat contemplating a leap. The market now faces its critical test: can these buyers transform this bouncy affair into a sustained recovery, or will the specter of selling pressure swoop in like a hawk and drag the price down once more?

The Daring Defenders of the $67 Fortress

Our tale of triumph began before the price plummeted to the depths of despair within its falling channel. Indeed, the brave buyers charged in early, valiantly defending the sacred $67 zone-an internal support level that emerged whilst the price was still on its downward slide.

On the fateful day of February 6, SOL etched a long lower wick on the daily candle-a sign of buyers heroically absorbing selling pressure and rejecting the very notion of lower prices. This phenomenon often graces us during those panicked moments when demand unexpectedly springs forth like a jack-in-the-box.

The Money Flow Index (MFI) reinforced this valiant behavior, measuring whether money was flowing into or out of this asset. A rising MFI amidst falling prices usually whispers tales of dip accumulation, like a treasure hunter stumbling upon hidden loot.

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Between December 18 and February 6, while Solana’s price crafted a downward trajectory akin to a sad violin solo, the MFI serenely trended higher. This bullish divergence suggested that capital was steadily sneaking into the market, even as prices fell. In layman’s terms, buyers were still lurking, even while the price danced cheek-to-cheek with the ground.

This early defense of $67 stopped Solana from tumbling straight to the bottom of the channel-saving us from witnessing a tragic fall. It laid the groundwork for that delightful 30% bounce. Alas, merely having early dip buyers isn’t quite enough to sustain a trend. To discern if this support is sturdy, we must investigate who lingers after the bounce.

The Return of the Long-Term Holders: But Are They Committed?

Post-dip, the spotlight shifted to the long-term investors, the wise sages of the crypto realm.

For this, we turn our gaze to the Hodler Net Position Change (30-day)-a metric that tracks whether wallets holding SOL for more than 155 days are hoarding or distributing their treasures. These stalwart investors typically provide the backbone of long-term trends, like the sturdy spine of a seasoned octopus.

As of February 6, long-term holders were adding around 1.88 million SOL. By February 8, this figure climbed to roughly 1.97 million SOL-a jubilant increase of 5% in net accumulation!

This indicates that conviction holders have begun to return post-crash, aligning splendidly with the strength of dip buying. A constructive signal indeed! Sustainable recoveries rarely emerge without their participation. However, let us not get too giddy; the pace remains leisurely. In robust recovery phases, long-term accumulation typically accelerates faster than a cheetah chasing its prey. Here, we find cautious and incremental buying, as if investors are tiptoeing through a minefield rather than fully committing to the dance.

Because long-term conviction is still a work in progress, the rebound remains fragile. The keen eyes of short-term traders become crucial in this chaotic theater.

Short-Term Selling Eases, Yet Loss Pressure Lingers Like a Bad Smell

The 1-Day to 1-Week Holder Cohort-the hyper-reactive wallets-began selling into the bounce, as if they were startled geese taking flight. On February 7, this group held about 8.32% of the SOL supply. By February 9, that number plummeted to around 5.40%. A nearly 35% drop in just two days, as indicated by the HODL Waves data, which segregates SOL wallets according to how long those coins have been held.

Despite this selling frenzy, the price managed to cling onto most of its gains-almost as if dip buyers, possibly the wise long-term investors, absorbed the exits like a sponge soaking up spilled water. A positive sign, indeed! However, danger lurks in the shadows with the Short-Term Holder NUPL, which measures whether recent buyers find themselves basking in profits or wallowing in losses.

On February 6, NUPL tumbled to around -0.95, reflecting extreme losses and panic akin to a chicken with its head cut off. After the rebound, it improved to roughly -0.70-an improvement of about 26%.

Losses have eased, but short-term holders remain swimming with the fishes, deeply underwater. Historically, early NUPL recoveries often lead to topsy-turvy bottoms. Losses may have eased too soon; if the price fails to ascend swiftly, remaining short-term holders might sell again to escape deeper drawdowns. Such actions could unleash another cascade of pressure. And here we return to the price chart, our guiding star.

The Fate of Solana: Will $96 Become Its Savior or Executioner?

All technical and on-chain signals now converge upon this very same intersection, as if summoned by the cosmos itself.

Since the rebound, Solana has been trapped in a precarious dance between roughly $80 and $96. This range reflects the hesitation of both buyers and sellers, caught in a tango of uncertainty.

As long as the price remains above $80, the rebound holds its ground, despite potential short-term selling shenanigans. But should $80 shatter, the next major zone looms near $67-$64. A loss in this area would reopen the path toward the abyss of $41-a grim 50% plunge from current levels, echoing the broader channel projection.

This structural risk still hovers ominously over the market, much like a dark cloud ready to unleash a storm.

On the brighter side, $96 stands as the critical threshold, the ultimate test. It served as robust support before the early February breakdown and now poses a formidable barrier as major resistance.

A sustained break above $96 would herald renewed confidence, like a phoenix rising from the ashes. From there, Solana could set its sights on $116 and potentially $148. Without reclaiming this pivotal level, future bounces may stall like a broken record. As it stands, the price remains trapped beneath this barrier, like a bird in a gilded cage.

Long-term buying remains as cautious as a mouse in a cat’s lair. Short-term losses have eased too prematurely. Until $96 is reclaimed with strong participation, we lack the confirmation needed for a truly resilient rebound.

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2026-02-09 22:17