Solana’s Shaky Standoff: Memecoin Meltdown and Alameda’s Unlocks Put $140 in Peril! 💸

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Well, well, well, it seems that Solana (SOL) is once again thrust into the spotlight, but not in a way it’s exactly enjoying. A cocktail of dwindling memecoin mania, plummeting user engagement, and, of course, the ever-reliable Alameda Research chipping away at its tokens has put some serious pressure on what was once the golden child of the crypto world.

While institutional inflows, thanks to ETFs, are still holding strong, it’s clear that Solana’s fate hinges on its ability to cling onto that precious $140-$150 demand zone. Will it manage to hold steady, or is this the beginning of a deeper plunge? Time, and the market’s mood swings, will tell.

Memecoin Chill: User Activity Hits a One-Year Low 😬

Remember the good old days of 2024 and early 2025, when Solana was riding high on the memecoin craze and retail speculation? Ah, the nostalgia. But now, that feverish energy has cooled faster than a gin martini on a winter evening.

According to Glassnode and The Block, daily active addresses have plummeted to a meager 3.3 million, down from a rather bubbly 9 million at the start of the year. A drop of this magnitude? My, oh my, that’s a 12-month low! The majority of this drop is courtesy of all those bots and short-term speculators who flooded the chain during its speculative glory days, only to evaporate like steam from a hot cup of tea.

This slowdown has its consequences, of course. With fewer users, there’s less fee revenue and liquidity, meaning Solana’s now a little more sensitive to market hiccups. Analysts are practically biting their nails waiting for new high-utility use cases (payments, gaming, or real-world assets, anyone?) to come along and give this chain a more loyal fanbase.

But don’t panic just yet! Solana’s ecosystem isn’t in shambles. Its DeFi TVL still boasts a respectable $10 billion, with projects like Jupiter, Jito, and Kamino leading the charge. Meanwhile, developers continue to craft stablecoin primitives and high-throughput applications. Even Firedancer’s institutional-grade infrastructure is still going strong. So, not all is lost-yet.

The Battle: Alameda’s Unlocks vs. Solana ETF Inflows 💥

Oh, and here comes another delightful twist-Alameda Research. In case you haven’t heard, they’re still unlocking SOL tokens from the FTX/Alameda bankruptcy estate. On November 11th, they unstaked a cool 193,000 SOL, worth a snazzy $30 million. These tokens tend to make their way onto exchanges, which only adds to the short-term selling pressure.

But hold on-things aren’t all doom and gloom. Solana is also enjoying a rather impressive streak of ETF inflows, totaling a hearty $336 million for the week. Bitwise and Grayscale Solana ETFs are now holding a combined $351 million in SOL. And even traditional institutions like Rothschild Investment and PNC Financial Services have decided to dip their toes into the Solana pool.

And just when you thought it couldn’t get any more exciting, SoFi Bank enters the scene, allowing U.S. users to buy SOL directly from their checking accounts. Talk about legitimizing Solana in the regulated finance world! It’s a classic case of a tug-of-war between systematic selling and accelerating inflows-no wonder Solana’s volatility is the talk of the town.

Technical Setup: $140-The Line in the Sand ⏳

Currently, SOL is trading in the $152-$156 range, having dipped below key support at $156. The technical indicators? Not looking so rosy:

  • OBV continues its downward trend, signaling that sellers are still calling the shots.
  • The market structure has been playing the lower highs, lower lows game since early November.
  • Liquidity heatmaps reveal strong magnetic zones at $144 and $140-looks like we’re heading there for a retest.

Analysts are now eyeing $140 as the critical support area. If it breaks? Well, brace yourselves-liquidity could drive it down to $120, opening the floodgates for an even deeper correction.

However, should Solana manage to defend $140 with a show of strength, we might just see a sharp rebound toward $165-$180. Of course, that’s assuming ETF flows stay robust and Bitcoin continues to hover above the $98k-$100k range.

Cover image from ChatGPT, SOLUSD chart from Tradingview

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2025-11-13 23:13