Stocks Face Long Grind Lower, but Bitcoin May Rally First, Says Gareth Soloway

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Gareth Soloway, President and Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, took a moment out of his undoubtedly busy schedule to share his remarkably grim outlook on U.S. stocks with David Lin on The David Lin Report (TDLR). According to him, we might all have to brace ourselves for a prolonged downward grind in the stock market, while Bitcoin-an asset usually reserved for the connoisseurs of chaos-could pull off a sharp relief rally.

Gareth Soloway Warns of Japan-Style Stagnation as He Turns Bullish on Bitcoin

As the week opened, the markets were shaking in their boots, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq sinking by about 1.5%, while Bitcoin seemed to be taking its own little plunge down to an intraday low of $62,500 on Tuesday. The culprit? A delightful cocktail of renewed tariff tensions and geopolitical concerns that seem to weigh heavily on the collective spirit. Meanwhile, in the safe corner of the market, Gold-a shiny relic of the past-ascended above $5,200, as if it were proudly stating, “I told you so.”

In his interview, Soloway explained that the stock market’s recent sideways movement wasn’t fooling him. “It’s institutional distribution, my dear boy,” he said, channeling a certain brand of wisdom. Soloway has been bearish on the stock market for months, citing charts that, to him, clearly indicated impending doom.

He’s eyeing the S&P 500 to dip to a comfortable 6,100, a neat 10% below where we are now, and maybe even plummet further to a grim 5,600 in the distant future. The sobering thought? U.S. equities could very well suffer from a Japan-style 20-year hangover following the 1980s boom. “We may not see new all-time highs in the stock market for literally 20-plus years,” he cautioned. Retirement plans relying on steady equity growth? Well, Soloway’s not so sure that’s going to end well. It seems artificial intelligence disruption is adding to the growing cocktail of market uncertainty.

But wait-there’s oil! Soloway remains a steadfast bull when it comes to oil, despite taking some profits along the way. With U.S. shale production slowing and geopolitical tensions mounting, he sees oil potentially reaching $100 a barrel within the next couple of years. He’s just waiting for that moment when the world collectively holds its breath and says, “Well, this should be fun.”

On Bitcoin, Soloway, ever the contrarian, revealed a decidedly different outlook than his earlier, and admittedly wrong, forecast from the beginning of 2024. While the broader bear cycle is still hanging over us like an uninvited guest, Bitcoin looks set for a sharp short-term rally, according to Soloway. His target? A swift jump toward $80,000 to $85,000, with a possible 20-30% gain before it inevitably falls back down.

While he’s still expecting Bitcoin to dip below $50,000 eventually, he believes now is an ideal time for swing traders looking to profit from a bit of contrarianism. It’s a chance to seize the opportunity while others cower in fear. Just don’t get too comfortable-there’s a catch. That’s the thrill of the market, isn’t it?

Meanwhile, Gold continues to bask in the glow of global uncertainty, with Soloway forecasting a near-term price of $5,400, though he’s not exactly rushing in to buy. Silver, on the other hand, seems stuck in a bear trap, with Soloway noting major support levels far lower than current prices. It’s the tale of two metals: one is positively gleaming, and the other… well, it’s more of a “meh” situation.

Soloway also addressed the decline in global interest in U.S. dollar-denominated assets, with foreign participation in Treasury markets waning. Should the dollar break through its long-term trendline, he warns, it could signal structural weakness rather than a fleeting dip.

When it comes to retirement planning, Soloway’s advice is clear: diversify. Metals, Bitcoin, and dividend-paying stocks should be your weapons of choice to combat the steady erosion of purchasing power by inflation. While he doesn’t promise a thrilling 10% annual return, he’s confident that a modest 3-5% return will suffice to preserve wealth. In a world of uncertainty, this seems like a reasonable enough strategy.

In short, Soloway’s message is simple: focus on probability, respect the technical signals, and stop pretending that the stock market will always save the day with its magical double-digit annual returns. Those days, it seems, are behind us.

FAQ 🔎

  • What is Gareth Soloway’s outlook for the stock market?
    He expects a continued downtrend, with potential declines toward 6,100 and possibly 5,600 on the S&P 500.
  • Why is Soloway bullish on bitcoin short term?
    He cites extreme bearish sentiment and a bullish chart pattern that could trigger a relief rally toward $80,000 to $85,000.
  • What is his view on oil prices?
    Soloway remains bullish, warning that oil could reach $100 per barrel within the next couple of years.
  • How does he suggest preparing for retirement?
    He recommends diversification across metals, bitcoin and dividend-paying stocks to preserve purchasing power.

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2026-02-25 03:27