Will XRP Stay or Go? A Twain-Style Tale of Crypto Woes

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Now, I ain’t no fortune-teller, but if XRP‘s price were a horse, it’d be the kind that’s been kicked more than once in a fair fight. Down nearly 7% in the last day and 5% in just a month, it’s been lookin’ weaker than a cat in a dog fight. February’s been the villain in XRP’s story before-average drops of about 8%, and in 2025, it took a nose dive of near 29%. Something bout this month just don’t sit right, like finding a hog in your bed.

This year, the signs are about as subtle as a mule in a china shop. Technical signals, like a blind man at a phonograph, hinting that trouble’s brewing; while some wise folks pluck at the strings of hope, whispering that a comeback ain’t out of the question. Here’s what the figureheads are mumbling about.

Why the Price Took a Tumble-Predictably Enough

XRP’s been moseying along in a downward channel-like a steamboat headed upstream, making lower highs and lower lows with all the elegance of a drunken sailor. Since mid-2025, that pattern’s kept it under a dark cloud, and now, as February’s shadow falls, it’s tiptoe’ng close to the bottom line, risking a bigger fall.

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Vasily Shilov, a wise man at SwapSpace, said seasonal patterns are old hat now-about as reliable as a weather vane in a tornado. According to him, ETF flows-those big-money movers-are the real talkers in this game, and without some macro clarity, XRP is likely to stay within its little range, bobbing up and down like a cork in a storm.

“ETF flows are currently more reliable directional drivers,” he explained.

“Range-bound movement is the most likely outcome if macro clarity does not emerge.”

Now, this weakness didn’t appear out of nowhere. Back between October 2 and January 5, XRP made a lower high-like a dog with a bone-and yet, the Relative Strength Index (RSI)-that’s the trader’s way of tellin’ if the momentum’s hot or cold-made a higher high. That’s what the folks call a hidden bearish divergence, which means the rally’s running out of steam. Sure enough, it took a nearly 30% nosedive soon after.

But hold your horses, a new show is about to start. Between October 10 and January 29, XRP made a lower low, yet RSI is tryin’ to make a higher low-that’s a bullish divergence, my friend, hinting that the tide might turn. To see this prophecy come true, two things must happen:

  • The next two-day candle must close above $1.71-otherwise, we’re just whistlin’ past the graveyard.
  • And RSI must stay above 32.83, or all bets are off.

If that happens, the bears might just have to back down a bit, and the bulls get a fresh shot at the pie. Otherwise, old man Bear will remain King.

Money Flows and Big Fish-A Confusing Tale

While XRP’s price seems headed south, the money folks are acting kinda funny. The Chaikin Money Flow, which tracks the big wallets and institutional investors, has been climbing even as the price drops-like a cat lickin’ its belly in the middle of a dog fight-this suggests they’re quietly stockpiling XRP, planning some sort of comeback.

ETF flows tell the same story: January saw a lot of money leaving-truth be told, more than a snipe hunt. But toward the month’s end, inflows picked up a bit, like a cautious farmer planting seeds before a storm. Still, as the exchange flow numbers show-more XRP coming in than goin’ out-the risk of a fall ain’t no fairy tale.

If the current inflow pattern keeps up, don’t be surprised if XRP takes a tumble like a barrel over Niagara. Shilov, that wise ole fox, says that despite the ETF inflow folks cheer about, the market’s still at the mercy of Bitcoin and the broader macro winds.

“BTC’s direction, macro stress, and derivatives positioning are likely to dictate risk appetite in the near term,” he noted.

The Big Whales and Their Big Wallets

Now, the whales-those big wallets holding over a billion XRP-have been quietly addin’ to their treasure chests, from 23.35 billion up to 23.49 billion, since the early part of January. Like a cat staking out a mousetrap, they’re buyin’ during the storm, perhaps seein’ opportunity where others see disaster.

Unlike last year, when these giants waited till February’s end, now they’re pounce’ng early-probably to keep from getting their tails stepped on. But don’t get too hopeful; their confidence may be as temp’ry as a sugar’s rush, and if macro forces turn sour, their sudden buying could vanish faster than a rabbit at a dog show.

“Steady accumulation must persist alongside stable ETF inflows,” he warned. “Otherwise, buying can dry up quicker than a puddle in the sun.”

This there is why the 5% dip in January looks tame compared to the 15% plunge back in December. The market’s a fickle lady, and right now she’s tugging at your coat tails.

Support, Resistance, and the Road Ahead

Now, the game’s about support-like a fence to keep the dogs in. XRP’s got a critical line at $1.71-$1.69. Cross that, and it’s like losin’ the tether-the price could tumble to $1.46, and if it falls below that, well sir, we’re headed to $1.24 quicker than a hiccup.

But if the bulls can rally and push above $1.97 on a two-day close, they might just open the gates to a run toward $2.41-where Fibonacci and other fancy lines say the top is waiting.

Shilov says the real sign of a bull run would be when ETF inflows roar back-think full steam ahead, $80 to $200 million weekly. That’s when you’ll see XRP climbing past $2.10 and beyond.

But beware-if world affairs turn sour, and macro pressures come crashing down, that support might break faster than a twig in a storm, pulling XRP below $1.70 like a rug from under your feet.

The final tally: keep watch on $1.69 and $1.97. Whichever one gives way first will tell us whether February is a month of gains or just more of the same old song and dance.

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2026-01-30 21:01