XRP Could Overtake Bitcoin: The Liquidity Crisis Plot Thickens

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If you’ve ever peeked into the crypto teahouse and watched the candles flicker like bored fireflies, you’ll know there’s always a new chapter. Jake Claver, a man whose surname sounds like the sort of person who checks the hitch on a bicycle, insists XRP will overtake Bitcoin as the leading digital asset. This is Part 4 of his “XRP Domino Theory,” where a global financial kerfuffle might nudge markets toward instant settlement infrastructure faster than you can say “blockchain party.”

He calls it “the largest wealth transfer in our lifetimes.”

Here’s a deeper dive, with fewer dragons and slightly more spreadsheets.

Oil Shock Could Break the Yen Carry Trade

Claver points to a swirling brew of geopolitical tensions-Iran, Venezuela, China, Russia-and suggests that a 20-40% jump in oil prices could fold the Japanese yen carry trade like a tired soufflé. For three decades, people borrowed in yen and planted their money in treasuries, stocks, and yes, crypto. Now, Japanese bond rates stand proudly at 30-year highs across the board.

“When the carry trade unwinds, people are going to sell whatever they can to move toward the safest thing in their mind, which is likely going to be Japanese bonds,” Claver said.

Japan holds about $1.6 trillion in US treasuries, while BRICS nations wave about another $2.3 trillion. It’s a global pile of numbers that reads like a diplomat’s grocery list.

Tether’s Balance Sheet Risk

The market cap of Tether sits around $190 billion, but only about $135 billion is backed by US treasuries. The rest includes roughly 100,000 BTC, more than 100 metric tons of gold, and private credit. It’s the sort of mix you’d expect from a fund manager who forgot to take a lunch break.

Claver warns that a global margin call could knock these assets down 20-50%, pressuring Tether’s peg. Crypto exchanges lean on Tether for liquidity; if it slips, order books thin, and withdrawals stretch out like a long Sunday line at the bank.

Bitcoin ETFs Become Forced Sellers

In a panic, Claver predicts MicroStrategy and Bitcoin ETFs will start selling. Institutional redemptions would push authorized participants to dump the underlying BTC, creating a negative feedback loop that could feel somewhat inevitable in a room where everyone’s ideas rhyme with “sell.”

His forecast: Bitcoin drifts down to $20,000.

Why XRP Wins

XRP settles in 3-5 seconds. That speed matters when counterparty risk starts behaving like a toddler with a megaphone-loud and unpredictable. Claver estimates available XRP supply at under 1 billion tokens, possibly as low as 100 million. At current prices, just $200 million of buying pressure could exhaust the supply. Then the price would gap up, like a staircase suddenly missing a few steps, until holders decide to part with their coins.

If the crisis unfolds as Claver imagines, XRP’s role in global finance could look very different by year-end-like an upstart understudy stepping onto a dramatically larger stage.

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2026-01-24 13:51