XRP’s Hidden Pattern Foretelling Every Rally Is Back-Act Before the Surge

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<a href="https://jpykr.com/xrp-usd/">XRP</a> Pattern That Preceded Every Rally Appeared Again, According to Crypto Analyst

Key Takeaways

  • XRP falls to $1.35 with RSI at 22.99, deep in oversold territory.
  • Spot trading volume hits lowest level since 2024 at $20.97 billion.
  • Leverage ratio collapsed from 0.59 to 0.13, derivatives market fully reset.
  • Fibonacci cycle analysis targets $21-$27 by August 2027 from a $0.87 base.

What the Price Is Doing

Looking at the one-hour chart on TradingView, the market showed a brief recovery that didn’t last. XRP’s price fell from $1.47 on March 19th to $1.35 by March 22nd. It then jumped to $1.46 on March 23rd with the week’s highest trading volume, but lost all those gains over the following three days.

The cryptocurrency market experienced losses today, with the price dropping below $1.36 amid increased trading activity. The 50-hour moving average is currently at $1.40, over four cents higher than the current price, and continues to fall.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 23, which is significantly lower than its average of 29.62, indicating the asset is oversold in the short term. Selling pressure hasn’t eased up yet. The price isn’t stabilizing; it’s continuing to fall without any obvious support level.

The Short-Term Data Confirms the Pressure

The derivatives market is adding its own weight to the picture.

According to data from CryptoQuant, the amount of XRP held as open interest on Binance is increasing again after falling for most of the past week, between March 17th and 24th. Usually, new investment is a positive sign, but in this case, it doesn’t necessarily indicate a favorable trend.

Binance Perpetual CVD is falling as more traders open short positions, indicating a bearish trend. This is also reflected in the spot market, where individual investors are currently selling instead of buying, suggesting they aren’t supporting prices.

Currently, a large number of sell orders are clustered just above the current XRP price. This suggests that if the price starts to rise, it could quickly trigger a ‘short squeeze,’ forcing traders who bet against XRP to buy back in, further driving up the price. For now, however, traders seem more inclined to bet on a price decrease rather than an increase.

Data from CryptoQuant shows XRP trading volume on major cryptocurrency exchanges hit a low for 2024, totaling $20.97 billion. This confirms recent trends observed in the spot market.

Binance holds the largest amount of XRP with 6.65 billion, followed by Upbit at 4.41 billion and Coinbase at 3.43 billion. These three exchanges together handle 69% of all XRP trading volume. Overall, the market is currently very quiet, experiencing its lowest activity level in two years.

Historically, when trading activity slows down, it often leads to a significant price change. However, current information doesn’t indicate whether that change will be up or down.

The Structural Reset Is Already Complete

Recent negative signals don’t alter the fact that XRP’s derivatives market has performed strongly for the last eight months.

It cleaned itself out.

According to data from CryptoQuant, leveraged XRP trading on Binance has significantly decreased. The exchange’s leverage ratio for XRP dropped from 0.59 in mid-July to 0.13, indicating that most leveraged positions taken during the recent price increase have been closed.

Open interest fell significantly from $1.8 billion to $375.5 million, but this doesn’t indicate a troubled market. Instead, it suggests the market has already processed the issues from the previous cycle’s overspending. With low borrowing and few investors holding large positions, the chance of widespread, forced selling is much lower.

The situation with XRP ETFs mirrors what’s happening with institutional investment. Data from SoSoValue shows weekly inflows into these ETFs reached over $250 million in November and December 2025, but have since dropped to just $2.66 million in the latest week.

Total assets are currently $995.72 million, a little under $1 billion. The initial excitement from the launch of the ETF has calmed down. Now, what’s left is a core group of investors who held on during the market decline instead of selling.

What the Long-Term Structure Shows

The recent market correction has created a foundation for potential future movement. Analyst Egrag Crypto has detailed possible scenarios in their latest technical analysis.

Using Fibonacci cycle analysis, a potential price target for XRP has been identified. This analysis looks at the peaks of the two previous major price cycles, which reached Fibonacci extensions of 3.0 and 1.618. The average of these two points to a target range of $21 to $27 by August 2027. This prediction is supported by an overall upward trend and timing indicators. A more cautious estimate suggests a price of $8 by January 2027, while a very optimistic scenario could see the price reach $60 if momentum continues strongly.

This strategy depends on the price finding support around $0.87, near the 100-day Exponential Moving Average. However, the price hasn’t reached that level yet.

Egrag uses a monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) as a second indicator. He’s noticed a consistent pattern – a 1-2-3 formation – on XRP’s monthly RSI throughout its major cycles, and this pattern has always been followed by a substantial price increase. This pattern is happening again now, for the third time. Egrag believes this proves XRP’s movements aren’t random; it follows predictable cyclical patterns. He argues that understanding these patterns – the underlying structure – is more important than focusing on short-term price fluctuations.

Two Timeframes

Okay, looking at XRP, things are starting to look interesting. On the short-term hourly chart, it seems pretty oversold right now, and I’m seeing more people betting against it, which often signals a potential bounce. Plus, trading volume is really low – the lowest it’s been all year. But looking at the bigger picture, the monthly chart is where it gets exciting. Leverage is back down to where it was before the last big price increase, which is good. The RSI indicator is showing a pattern it’s only done twice before, usually right before a major move up. And if you look at Fibonacci cycles, the potential target price by August 2027 is significantly higher than where we are now – potentially multiples of the current price. It’s definitely something I’m watching closely.

As a crypto investor, I’ve been looking at the data, and it’s interesting. Both analyses are valid – they’re just looking at different things over different periods. Right now, the short-term trends suggest we might see some continued downward pressure in the near future. However, the longer-term picture is potentially bullish, hinting at a solid foundation building before a big move… as long as one key thing stays true.

The long-term outlook for XRP is currently based on a price of $0.87. If the price falls below this level and doesn’t bounce back, it will significantly weaken the positive outlook. However, if $0.87 holds, then both short-term and long-term price trends should eventually move in the same direction. The key isn’t *if* XRP will move, but *where* it will move to.

This article is for informational purposes only and shouldn’t be taken as financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t support or suggest any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Always do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor before investing.

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2026-03-26 18:58